SELF DRIVE CARS or DRONES
Electric Vehicles (EV’s) are here to stay, as they last 5x longer and are 10x cheaper to run.
“Fully automated” level 5 driverless cars will be the norm with 5-10 years.
Due to the above, vehicle manufacturers like Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, are getting into the business of Transport as a Service (TAAS). Uber is an early example of TAAS, but in the future these cars will be driverless.
We use our cars on average 4.5% of the time, whereas TAAS companies achieve utilisations in excess of 45%. Couple this with the EV’s, which last 5x longer than conventional cars and it becomes clear that we will need 80% less cars in the future. Within the next decade or two, most cars will be Driverless EV’s
Today it already makes almost no sense for you to own a car, which is a costly depreciating asset. It will be far cheaper for you to use TAAS once it is driverless.
Eventually, most driverless EV’s will be fleet owned, which means they will not use local fuel stations, corner mechanics, tyre repair facilities, etc. Nor will we be buying 2nd hand cars. This means most businesses that sell second-hand cars, parts, etc, and provide repair or re-fuelling services to the public, will cease to exist.
Driverless EV cars have no need for steering wheels, brake pedals, gear shifts, gear boxes, rear view mirrors, rear lights, fenders, etc. Therefore, people making those components will be out of work.
EV’s have just over 20 moving parts, compared with some 2000 moving parts in conventional cars. Therefore, people making those components will be out of work.
EV’s use no fuel and only need some lubrication, so the demand for oil, which is used for fuel, will fall by over 50%. This will significantly depress the price of oil in the next decade.
As sales of EV’s, which last longer, and TAAS increase, the volume of cars manufactured will fall by 80%. This means the demand for steel used in cars will fall by 80% and demand for the remaining components will fall by 80%.
Driverless cars will make less and then no accidents, so within say 20 years, we will no longer need panel beaters. This could also eliminate the need for many safety features in cars.
Bottom line, the extent of the disruption that will arise when driverless TAAS is the norm, is considerable.
Now imagine the disruption, when Pilotless Drones replace many cars, which is already a reality. They are trying to set these up to ferry passengers from Dubai airport to their hotels.
For more on this, read the first two chapters of my book at https://technologytsunamialert.com/
Please comment or ask questions. We would love to hear from you.
My book Technology Tsunami Alert will be launched mid-2020.
Please also read the Gold/Silver and Investment chapters on my EelcoGold website.